Probabilistic projections

Monte Carlo
SIP Simulator

Your SIP calculator shows one number. Markets don't work that way. See the full range of realistic outcomes — from unlucky to lucky — for your monthly SIP.

Simulate my SIP → All tools

1,000

Simulations per run

20+ yrs

NAV history used

P10–P90

Probability bands

What it does

Replace false certainty
with honest probability

A SIP projection at "12% CAGR" is a single point estimate. Monte Carlo shows you the whole distribution — what good, median, and bad outcomes actually look like.

Probability fan chart

Visualise how your portfolio value could evolve year by year — with confidence bands showing the range of realistic outcomes.

Goal probability score

Enter your target corpus. Get the probability (out of 1,000 simulations) that your SIP reaches that amount in your timeframe.

Return distribution histogram

See the full distribution of final portfolio values across all simulations — understand the shape of your risk, not just the average.

Sample output

₹10,000/month for 15 years

In a typical large-cap fund, your median outcome is ₹52L — but in a bad sequence of returns it could be ₹29L, and in a good one, ₹84L. Plan for the range, not the average.

P90 (lucky)

Median

P10 (unlucky)

Yr 5

Yr 10

Yr 15

₹0₹84L

How it works

1,000 futures
in seconds

We use your fund's own historical return data to drive the simulation — no assumptions needed.

Choose your fund, SIP amount, and horizon

Select any mutual fund from our database. Enter your monthly SIP and how many years you plan to invest.

We estimate return and volatility from real NAV history

Topsheet calculates the fund's monthly return distribution using its actual historical NAV data — not generic market assumptions.

1,000 simulations run, distribution displayed

Each simulation randomly samples from the return distribution month by month. The spread of 1,000 final values becomes your probability fan chart.

Frequently asked questions

Common questions

How Monte Carlo SIP simulation works and why it matters.

What is Monte Carlo simulation for SIP?

Monte Carlo simulation runs thousands of random scenarios using your fund's historical return distribution. Instead of projecting one expected return (say 12%), it shows you a range — the 10th percentile (bad outcome), median (typical outcome), and 90th percentile (good outcome) — so you can plan with uncertainty in mind.

Why is a single projected SIP return misleading?

Using one expected return ignores the randomness of markets. A fund averaging 12% returns can deliver anywhere from 4% to 20% depending on sequence of returns — especially for SIPs where timing of each installment matters. Monte Carlo captures this full range of outcomes.

How many simulations does Topsheet run?

Topsheet runs 1,000 simulations per analysis. Each simulation randomly samples from the fund's historical monthly return distribution, simulating one possible path for your SIP over your chosen investment period. The distribution of all 1,000 final values gives you the probability bands.

What inputs do I need for the Monte Carlo SIP simulator?

You need: the mutual fund you want to analyse, your monthly SIP amount, and your investment horizon in years. Topsheet uses the fund's actual historical NAV data to estimate return and volatility parameters — no need to input expected return manually.

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